External validation of voter turnout models by concealed parameter recovery

External Validation of Voter Turnout Models by Concealed Parameter Recovery1

We conduct a model validation analysis of several behavioral models of voter turnout, using laboratory data. We call our method of model validation concealed parameter recovery, where estimation of a model is done under a veil of ignorance about some of the experimentally controlled parameters — in this case voting costs. We use quantal response equilibrium as the underlying, common structure f...

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RISE Working Paper 14 - 0 15 “ External Validation of Voter Turnout Models by Concealed Parameter Recovery ” by

We conduct a model validation analysis of several behavioral models of voter turnout, using laboratory data. We call our method of model validation concealed parameter recovery, where estimation of a model is done under a veil of ignorance about some of the experimentally controlled parameters — in this case voting costs. We use quantal response equilibrium as the underlying, common structure f...

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Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California 91125 External Validation of Voter Turnout Models by Concealed Parameter Recovery

We conduct a model validation analysis of several behavioral models of voter turnout, using laboratory data. We call our method of model validation concealed parameter recovery, where estimation of a model is done under a veil of ignorance about some of the experimentally controlled parameters — in this case voting costs. We use quantal response equilibrium as the underlying, common structure f...

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Motivating voter turnout by invoking the self.

Three randomized experiments found that subtle linguistic cues have the power to increase voting and related behavior. The phrasing of survey items was varied to frame voting either as the enactment of a personal identity (e.g., "being a voter") or as simply a behavior (e.g., "voting"). As predicted, the personal-identity phrasing significantly increased interest in registering to vote (experim...

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Television and Voter Turnout

I use variation across markets in the timing of televisions introduction to identify its impact on voter turnout. The estimated e¤ect is signicantly negative, accounting for between a quarter and a half of the total decline in turnout since the 1950s. It is robust to a range of controls and alternative specications, and interacts intuitively with county characteristics. I argue that substitu...

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External validation of voter turnout models by concealed parameter recovery

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